Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +4 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -3.1 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -0.1 (+3.9) | 146.2 (+9.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -1.1 (+5.1) | 151.2 (+4.8) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -0.8 (+4.8) | 152.2 (+3.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -0.7 (+4.7) | 153.1 (+2.9) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | ARK 88 – 75 AUB |
| Jan 10, 2026 | AUB 95 – 73 ARK |
| Feb 20, 2025 | AUB 67 – 60 ARK |
| Jan 6, 2024 | AUB 83 – 51 ARK |
| Mar 10, 2023 | ARK 76 – 73 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 17-1 | 16-0 |
| Away | 5-4 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#24) | 18.6 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#40) | 4.28 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#38) | 5.16 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#49) | 0.676 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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