Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +38 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -11.8 (+26.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -13.7 (+24.3) | 154.7 (+11.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -10.2 (+27.8) | 151.1 (+14.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -10.9 (+27.1) | 152.9 (+13.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -10.8 (+27.2) | 154.1 (+11.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | BUF 72 – 67 EMU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | EMU 90 – 77 BUF |
| Feb 21, 2024 | BUF 78 – 69 EMU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | EMU 75 – 65 BUF |
| Feb 8, 2023 | BUF 102 – 97 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-11 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 5-15 |
| Home | 9-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 9-5 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#126) | -6.0 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#151) | -1.05 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#130) | -1.34 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#136) | 0.446 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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