Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | BUF -250 EMU +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -5.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -4.7 (+0.3) | 145.5 (-6.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -5.3 (-0.3) | 144.7 (-5.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -4.8 (+0.2) | 146.2 (-7.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -5.9 (-0.9) | 147.1 (-8.1) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2025 | EMU 90 – 77 BUF |
| Feb 21, 2024 | BUF 78 – 69 EMU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | EMU 75 – 65 BUF |
| Feb 8, 2023 | BUF 102 – 97 EMU |
| Feb 17, 2022 | BUF 83 – 69 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 7-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 8-6 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#193) | -4.1 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#189) | -0.95 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#172) | -1.05 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#194) | 0.452 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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