Betting Lines
| Spread | EMU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | EMU -175 BUF +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EMU +10 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | EMU -4.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EMU -4.2 (+5.8) | 139.3 (+0.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EMU -2.1 (+7.9) | 138.2 (+1.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EMU -3.3 (+6.7) | 139.2 (+0.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EMU -3.2 (+6.8) | 139.3 (+0.7) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | BUF 72 – 67 EMU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | EMU 90 – 77 BUF |
| Feb 21, 2024 | BUF 78 – 69 EMU |
| Feb 8, 2023 | BUF 102 – 97 EMU |
| Feb 17, 2022 | BUF 83 – 69 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 2-16 |
| Home | 9-6 | 2-13 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 79.6 |
| Massey | -12.1 (#335) | -13.1 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#297) | -3.25 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#313) | -3.80 (#356) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#310) | 0.404 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 25.7% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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