But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed
Mid-American Conference · Gervin GameAbove Center · January 27, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread EMU -3.5 Home covered
O/U 144.5 Under
Money EMU -175 / BUF +138
Model Predictions
Spread Total EMU win
Actual EMU +10 140 Won
Massey EMU -4.6 (+5.4)
Massey Totals 139.2 (+0.8)
Bradley-Terry 93%
Weighted B-T 93%
Efficiency Plus ML EMU -2.1 (+7.9) 138.2 (+1.8) 56%
Baseline Tuned ML EMU -3.3 (+6.7) 139.2 (+0.8) 65%
Baseline ML EMU -3.2 (+6.8) 139.3 (+0.7) 61%
Baseline Plus ML EMU -4.2 (+5.8) 139.3 (+0.7) 67%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 3, 2026 BUF 7267 EMU
Jan 25, 2025 EMU 9077 BUF
Feb 21, 2024 BUF 7869 EMU
Feb 8, 2023 BUF 10297 EMU
Feb 17, 2022 BUF 8369 EMU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings EMU BUF
Overall 13-18 4-27
Conference 6-12 2-16
Home 9-6 2-13
Away 4-11 2-11
Neutral 0-1 0-3
Last 5 0-5 0-5
Streak L1 L5
Avg Pts For 65.9 67.3
Avg Pts Against 73.6 79.6
Massey -12.1 (#335) -13.1 (#342)
Bradley-Terry -1.41 (#297) -3.25 (#356)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.02 (#313) -3.80 (#356)
RPI 0.416 (#310) 0.404 (#325)
Shooting & Four Factors EMU BUF
FG% 43.5% 40.3%
3PT% 30.7% 25.7%
REB / G 32.3 35.5
OREB / G 8.9 11.9
AST / TO 0.90 0.82
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.4% 45.8%
TOV% 17.1% 21.2%
ORB% 25.3% 31.3%
FT Rate 19.8% 18.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.9% 54.7%
Opp TOV% 16.1% 15.2%
DRB% 70.3% 69.7%
Opp FT Rate 22.7% 19.5%

Game Analysis

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