Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +14 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -9.2 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -8.7 (-5.3) | 155.8 (-3.8) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -10.7 (-3.3) | 156.1 (-4.1) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -8.5 (-5.5) | 157.4 (-5.4) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -10.0 (-4.0) | 157.3 (-5.3) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | BUF 72 – 67 EMU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | EMU 90 – 77 BUF |
| Feb 21, 2024 | BUF 78 – 69 EMU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | EMU 75 – 65 BUF |
| Feb 8, 2023 | BUF 102 – 97 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 19-11 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 13-6 |
| Home | 8-7 | 9-3 |
| Away | 2-14 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#290) | 4.8 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#256) | 0.48 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#262) | 0.73 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#267) | 0.537 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 42.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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