Betting Lines
| Spread | EMU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | EMU -250 BUF +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EMU +13 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | EMU -7.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (+13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EMU -6.0 (+7.0) | 153.3 (+13.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EMU -6.6 (+6.4) | 151.0 (+16.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EMU -5.3 (+7.7) | 149.8 (+17.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EMU -5.7 (+7.3) | 150.5 (+16.5) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | BUF 72 – 67 EMU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | BUF 78 – 69 EMU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | EMU 75 – 65 BUF |
| Feb 8, 2023 | BUF 102 – 97 EMU |
| Feb 17, 2022 | BUF 83 – 69 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 9-5 | 6-9 |
| Away | 6-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 81.6 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#307) | -12.5 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#218) | -1.58 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#240) | -2.35 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#227) | 0.436 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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