Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | BUF -500 EMU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +5 | 199 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -11.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.8 (+33.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -8.9 (-3.9) | 161.7 (+37.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -11.4 (-6.4) | 159.6 (+39.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -9.8 (-4.8) | 161.4 (+37.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -9.3 (-4.3) | 162.3 (+36.7) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | BUF 72 – 67 EMU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | EMU 90 – 77 BUF |
| Feb 21, 2024 | BUF 78 – 69 EMU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | EMU 75 – 65 BUF |
| Feb 17, 2022 | BUF 83 – 69 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 81.3 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#185) | -8.6 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#210) | -1.71 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#206) | -2.03 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#187) | 0.415 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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