Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | BUF -188 EMU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -1.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EMU -1.2 (+10.2) | 143.2 (+3.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -0.9 (+8.1) | 141.2 (+5.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -0.1 (+8.9) | 139.7 (+7.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | EMU -0.7 (+9.7) | 142.4 (+4.6) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | BUF 72 – 67 EMU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | EMU 90 – 77 BUF |
| Jan 27, 2024 | EMU 75 – 65 BUF |
| Feb 8, 2023 | BUF 102 – 97 EMU |
| Feb 17, 2022 | BUF 83 – 69 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 6-12 |
| Home | 2-13 | 9-6 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -13.5 (#342) | -11.7 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.84 (#356) | -1.35 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.63 (#356) | -1.83 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#331) | 0.413 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 26.2% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.