Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Under |
| Money | UNLV -600 AF +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +34 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -10.3 (+23.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -11.0 (+23.0) | 129.3 (-7.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -8.7 (+25.3) | 132.3 (-10.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -9.4 (+24.6) | 133.5 (-11.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -9.6 (+24.4) | 130.5 (-8.5) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNLV 91 – 66 AF |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNLV 67 – 39 AF |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNLV 68 – 59 AF |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNLV 77 – 52 AF |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UNLV 77 – 58 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 4-13 |
| Home | 14-4 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 59.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#114) | -3.6 (#233) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#115) | -0.01 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#103) | -0.30 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#122) | 0.477 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 27.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 5.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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