Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +6 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -10.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -11.7 (-5.7) | 140.5 (-0.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -10.8 (-4.8) | 147.5 (-7.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -10.6 (-4.6) | 145.8 (-5.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -11.5 (-5.5) | 144.9 (-4.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | JOES 70 – 58 DAV |
| Mar 5, 2026 | JOES 70 – 67 DAV |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DAV 62 – 56 JOES |
| Jan 22, 2025 | JOES 78 – 61 DAV |
| Mar 9, 2024 | JOES 89 – 71 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-1 | 9-7 |
| Away | 9-3 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#63) | 0.8 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#24) | -0.00 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#32) | 0.13 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#26) | 0.500 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.6% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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