Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | UNI -280 SIU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +9 | 97 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -6.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (-32.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -5.2 (+3.8) | 131.8 (-34.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -6.1 (+2.9) | 132.2 (-35.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -5.9 (+3.1) | 133.7 (-36.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -5.1 (+3.9) | 132.2 (-35.2) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SIU 59 – 57 UNI |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SIU 65 – 50 UNI |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SIU 73 – 49 UNI |
| Dec 29, 2024 | UNI 78 – 67 SIU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | UNI 82 – 70 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 61.6 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#98) | 2.2 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#138) | -0.33 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#132) | -0.19 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#101) | 0.465 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 79.9% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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