Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UNI -750 SIU +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +11 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -14.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -14.0 (-3.0) | 148.3 (-3.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -11.0 (-0.0) | 146.7 (-1.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -13.8 (-2.8) | 147.8 (-2.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -14.3 (-3.3) | 148.6 (-3.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SIU 59 – 57 UNI |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SIU 65 – 50 UNI |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SIU 73 – 49 UNI |
| Mar 3, 2024 | UNI 82 – 70 SIU |
| Jan 21, 2024 | UNI 61 – 57 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#80) | -2.9 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#109) | -0.52 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#101) | -0.55 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#104) | 0.513 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.0% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.5% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.3% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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