Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | SIU -175 UNI +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +12 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -4.2 (-16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -2.6 (-14.6) | 141.9 (+10.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -3.0 (-15.0) | 139.9 (+12.1) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -2.7 (-14.7) | 140.4 (+11.6) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -3.1 (-15.1) | 142.9 (+9.1) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SIU 59 – 57 UNI |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SIU 65 – 50 UNI |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SIU 73 – 49 UNI |
| Dec 29, 2024 | UNI 78 – 67 SIU |
| Jan 21, 2024 | UNI 61 – 57 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#108) | 3.5 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#117) | 0.76 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#104) | 0.95 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#138) | 0.545 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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