Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | SIU -105 UNI -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +15 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -0.4 (+14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.8 (-14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -0.4 (+14.6) | 130.3 (-15.3) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -0.1 (+15.1) | 130.4 (-15.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -0.5 (+14.5) | 129.9 (-14.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -0.3 (+14.7) | 130.3 (-15.3) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SIU 59 – 57 UNI |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SIU 73 – 49 UNI |
| Dec 29, 2024 | UNI 78 – 67 SIU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | UNI 82 – 70 SIU |
| Jan 21, 2024 | UNI 61 – 57 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 62.5 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#131) | 5.3 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#210) | 0.49 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#209) | 0.50 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#190) | 0.544 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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