Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | UNI -305 SIU +245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +2 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | UNI -6.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -6.4 (-8.4) | 135.8 (-19.8) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -6.8 (-8.8) | 136.3 (-20.3) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -6.9 (-8.9) | 134.2 (-18.2) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -6.8 (-8.8) | 132.1 (-16.1) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | SIU 65 – 50 UNI |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SIU 73 – 49 UNI |
| Dec 29, 2024 | UNI 78 – 67 SIU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | UNI 82 – 70 SIU |
| Jan 21, 2024 | UNI 61 – 57 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.5 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#85) | 3.5 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#103) | -0.15 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#106) | -0.16 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#75) | 0.497 (#190) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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