Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | UNI -225 SIU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +4 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -2.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (-21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -2.1 (+1.9) | 137.3 (-19.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -1.2 (+2.8) | 135.2 (-17.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -2.6 (+1.4) | 136.9 (-18.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -2.1 (+1.9) | 136.3 (-18.3) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SIU 59 – 57 UNI |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SIU 65 – 50 UNI |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SIU 73 – 49 UNI |
| Dec 29, 2024 | UNI 78 – 67 SIU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | UNI 82 – 70 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-3 | 13-5 |
| Away | 6-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#109) | 5.5 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#107) | 0.49 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#105) | 1.01 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#108) | 0.515 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 78.5% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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