Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +15 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -7.1 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -6.6 (-8.4) | 134.3 (+0.7) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -5.1 (-9.9) | 137.1 (-2.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -5.2 (-9.8) | 137.0 (-2.0) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -4.3 (-10.7) | 136.1 (-1.1) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | KSU 90 – 74 BAY |
| Mar 12, 2025 | BAY 70 – 56 KSU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | BAY 70 – 62 KSU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | KSU 68 – 64 BAY |
| Feb 22, 2023 | KSU 75 – 65 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 14-4 |
| Home | 9-7 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#59) | 19.2 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#66) | 3.36 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#50) | 4.20 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#116) | 0.620 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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