Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | KSU +110 BAY -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +10 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | KSU -1.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (-11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -1.2 (+8.8) | 150.0 (-10.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -1.1 (+8.9) | 147.0 (-7.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -1.6 (+8.4) | 150.3 (-10.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -1.6 (+8.4) | 151.7 (-11.7) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | KSU 90 – 74 BAY |
| Mar 12, 2025 | BAY 70 – 56 KSU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | BAY 70 – 62 KSU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | KSU 68 – 64 BAY |
| Jan 7, 2023 | KSU 97 – 95 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#20) | 15.7 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#12) | 2.93 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.06 (#16) | 3.61 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#29) | 0.625 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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