Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | KSU +150 BAY -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +16 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -4.1 (+20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -4.1 (+20.1) | 158.1 (+5.9) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -2.9 (+18.9) | 157.9 (+6.1) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -2.6 (+18.6) | 157.0 (+7.0) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -2.8 (+18.8) | 156.5 (+7.5) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2025 | BAY 70 – 56 KSU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | BAY 70 – 62 KSU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | KSU 68 – 64 BAY |
| Feb 22, 2023 | KSU 75 – 65 BAY |
| Jan 7, 2023 | KSU 97 – 95 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-8 | 11-6 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#93) | 13.1 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#92) | 1.71 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#94) | 2.51 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#154) | 0.546 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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