Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | BAY -270 KSU +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +14 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -7.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (-15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -5.4 (+8.6) | 135.5 (-9.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -5.7 (+8.3) | 135.4 (-9.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -5.5 (+8.5) | 134.7 (-8.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -5.2 (+8.8) | 133.4 (-7.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | KSU 90 – 74 BAY |
| Jan 23, 2025 | BAY 70 – 62 KSU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | KSU 68 – 64 BAY |
| Feb 22, 2023 | KSU 75 – 65 BAY |
| Jan 7, 2023 | KSU 97 – 95 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 16.0 (#25) | 9.0 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#45) | 1.44 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#43) | 1.82 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#55) | 0.534 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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