Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | BAY -950 KSU +625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +8 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -15.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (-19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -13.7 (-5.7) | 144.0 (-12.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -13.5 (-5.5) | 143.2 (-11.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -12.1 (-4.1) | 144.8 (-12.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -12.7 (-4.7) | 143.8 (-11.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | KSU 90 – 74 BAY |
| Mar 12, 2025 | BAY 70 – 56 KSU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | KSU 68 – 64 BAY |
| Feb 22, 2023 | KSU 75 – 65 BAY |
| Jan 7, 2023 | KSU 97 – 95 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 16.6 (#20) | 4.3 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#46) | 0.36 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#47) | 0.70 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#43) | 0.515 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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