Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | KSU -115 BAY -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +4 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -5.6 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (-17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -1.0 (+5.0) | 144.3 (-12.3) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -2.6 (+6.6) | 141.7 (-9.7) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -3.6 (+7.6) | 144.1 (-12.1) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -2.1 (+6.1) | 143.7 (-11.7) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | KSU 90 – 74 BAY |
| Mar 12, 2025 | BAY 70 – 56 KSU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | BAY 70 – 62 KSU |
| Feb 22, 2023 | KSU 75 – 65 BAY |
| Jan 7, 2023 | KSU 97 – 95 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#69) | 17.5 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#57) | 2.70 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#69) | 3.20 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#71) | 0.619 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 50.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 43.7% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 58.4% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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