Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -333 KSU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +2 | 192 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -3.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (+38.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -4.0 (-6.0) | 146.8 (+45.2) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -2.9 (-4.9) | 150.5 (+41.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -3.5 (-5.5) | 151.8 (+40.2) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -3.6 (-5.6) | 150.5 (+41.5) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | KSU 90 – 74 BAY |
| Mar 12, 2025 | BAY 70 – 56 KSU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | BAY 70 – 62 KSU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | KSU 68 – 64 BAY |
| Feb 22, 2023 | KSU 75 – 65 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#22) | 13.0 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#28) | 3.45 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#35) | 4.05 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#41) | 0.643 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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