Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +9 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | TENN -4.4 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -2.4 (-6.6) | 136.0 (-1.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -2.7 (-6.3) | 139.4 (-4.4) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -2.0 (-7.0) | 139.1 (-4.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -2.2 (-6.8) | 138.8 (-3.8) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TENN 73 – 64 MSST |
| Jan 22, 2025 | TENN 68 – 56 MSST |
| Mar 15, 2024 | MSST 73 – 56 TENN |
| Jan 11, 2024 | MSST 77 – 72 TENN |
| Jan 18, 2023 | TENN 70 – 59 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-3 | 16-0 |
| Away | 1-10 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 62.9 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#45) | 17.9 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#67) | 2.77 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#65) | 3.45 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#68) | 0.625 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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