Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | MSST +310 TENN -395 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +9 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | TENN -10.2 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -7.3 (-1.7) | 146.0 (-9.0) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -7.3 (-1.7) | 148.5 (-11.5) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -8.9 (-0.1) | 148.5 (-11.5) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -7.9 (-1.1) | 145.5 (-8.5) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2025 | TENN 68 – 56 MSST |
| Mar 15, 2024 | MSST 73 – 56 TENN |
| Jan 11, 2024 | MSST 77 – 72 TENN |
| Jan 18, 2023 | TENN 70 – 59 MSST |
| Jan 4, 2023 | TENN 87 – 53 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#97) | 18.9 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#86) | 2.92 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#78) | 3.95 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#117) | 0.603 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 43.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 15.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 45.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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