Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Over |
| Money | TENN -500 MSST +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +34 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -15.0 (+19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 109.5 (+30.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -12.4 (+21.6) | 126.1 (+13.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -12.6 (+21.4) | 127.7 (+12.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -12.8 (+21.2) | 127.3 (+12.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -13.0 (+21.0) | 128.0 (+12.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TENN 73 – 64 MSST |
| Jan 22, 2025 | TENN 68 – 56 MSST |
| Mar 15, 2024 | MSST 73 – 56 TENN |
| Jan 11, 2024 | MSST 77 – 72 TENN |
| Jan 18, 2023 | TENN 70 – 59 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.9 | 61.0 |
| Massey | 20.7 (#3) | 10.0 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#9) | 2.20 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.14 (#10) | 2.52 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#9) | 0.562 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.7% | 43.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.1% | 24.5% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 14.1% |
Game Analysis
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