Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | MSST +170 TENN -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +11 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | TENN -8.6 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 114.5 (+14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -6.6 (-4.4) | 122.1 (+6.9) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -6.2 (-4.8) | 122.3 (+6.7) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -6.9 (-4.1) | 125.1 (+3.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -8.2 (-2.8) | 122.8 (+6.2) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TENN 73 – 64 MSST |
| Jan 22, 2025 | TENN 68 – 56 MSST |
| Mar 15, 2024 | MSST 73 – 56 TENN |
| Jan 11, 2024 | MSST 77 – 72 TENN |
| Jan 4, 2023 | TENN 87 – 53 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 57.9 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#58) | 21.3 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#47) | 2.61 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#58) | 3.15 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#56) | 0.632 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 39.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 38.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 25.2% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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