Betting Lines
| Spread | VMI -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Over |
| Money | VMI -170 MER +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VMI +6 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | VMI -6.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (+13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VMI -4.4 (+1.6) | 148.9 (+15.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VMI -4.8 (+1.2) | 148.6 (+15.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VMI -5.1 (+0.9) | 149.8 (+14.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VMI -5.2 (+0.8) | 150.3 (+13.7) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | MER 95 – 81 VMI |
| Jan 15, 2026 | MER 77 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 15, 2025 | VMI 80 – 71 MER |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MER 70 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MER 90 – 69 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#141) | -2.4 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#150) | 0.25 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#134) | 0.11 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#126) | 0.512 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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