Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | CSUB +140 UCSB -160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +12 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -3.8 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -3.6 (-8.4) | 125.7 (+10.3) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -4.2 (-7.8) | 130.0 (+6.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -3.3 (-8.7) | 130.9 (+5.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -4.7 (-7.3) | 129.6 (+6.4) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | UCSB 75 – 69 CSUB |
| Dec 7, 2025 | UCSB 109 – 84 CSUB |
| Mar 13, 2025 | UCSB 71 – 66 CSUB |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCSB 81 – 75 CSUB |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UCSB 78 – 66 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-19 | 17-11 |
| Conference | 2-12 | 8-5 |
| Home | 5-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-11 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#259) | 1.7 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#288) | -1.13 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#271) | -0.97 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#300) | 0.424 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.8% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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