Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -19.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -7000 IUIN +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +15 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -20.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -14.0 (+1.0) | 125.2 (+3.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -15.3 (-0.3) | 128.4 (+0.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -15.4 (-0.4) | 127.2 (+1.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -16.8 (-1.8) | 126.8 (+2.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PFW 87 – 81 IUIN |
| Feb 15, 2026 | PFW 83 – 78 IUIN |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PFW 91 – 80 IUIN |
| Dec 12, 2024 | PFW 78 – 76 IUIN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | PFW 92 – 65 IUIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 3-26 |
| Conference | 15-6 | 1-16 |
| Home | 14-2 | 2-11 |
| Away | 6-7 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 51.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#254) | -22.0 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#249) | -5.20 (#359) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#263) | -6.63 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#261) | 0.310 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 26.3% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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