Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | IUIN +320 PFW -425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IUIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +11 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | PFW -6.6 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.3 (+9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -6.4 (-4.6) | 157.4 (+13.6) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -6.6 (-4.4) | 156.1 (+14.9) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -6.7 (-4.3) | 153.8 (+17.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -6.0 (-5.0) | 155.8 (+15.2) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PFW 87 – 81 IUIN |
| Feb 15, 2026 | PFW 83 – 78 IUIN |
| Dec 12, 2024 | PFW 78 – 76 IUIN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | PFW 92 – 65 IUIN |
| Jan 18, 2024 | IUIN 85 – 79 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IUIN | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 12-8 |
| Home | 6-8 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-12 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#290) | 2.3 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.30 (#337) | 0.41 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.64 (#332) | 0.79 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.391 (#341) | 0.528 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IUIN | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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