Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -1600 IUIN +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +2 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -16.7 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -10.9 (-8.9) | 150.4 (+3.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -13.7 (-11.7) | 149.1 (+4.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -12.4 (-10.4) | 150.8 (+3.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -11.9 (-9.9) | 150.5 (+3.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PFW 87 – 81 IUIN |
| Feb 15, 2026 | PFW 83 – 78 IUIN |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PFW 91 – 80 IUIN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | PFW 92 – 65 IUIN |
| Jan 18, 2024 | IUIN 85 – 79 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-2 | 6-8 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 79.7 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#115) | -9.2 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#150) | -2.45 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#139) | -3.12 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#123) | 0.376 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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