Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -325 IUIN +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +5 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -7.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.4 (-7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -7.2 (-2.2) | 155.7 (+5.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -7.9 (-2.9) | 156.0 (+5.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -7.4 (-2.4) | 156.3 (+4.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -6.7 (-1.7) | 155.6 (+5.4) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PFW 87 – 81 IUIN |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PFW 91 – 80 IUIN |
| Dec 12, 2024 | PFW 78 – 76 IUIN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | PFW 92 – 65 IUIN |
| Jan 18, 2024 | IUIN 85 – 79 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 3-17 |
| Home | 11-4 | 5-9 |
| Away | 6-11 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 89.2 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#256) | -10.3 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#189) | -1.95 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#227) | -2.33 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#203) | 0.393 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 28.1 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 22.2% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 57.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 64.0% | 63.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 35.6% |
Game Analysis
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