Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -2000 IUIN +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IUIN +6 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | PFW -24.3 (-30.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -18.3 (-24.3) | 150.3 (+13.7) | 90% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -17.7 (-23.7) | 152.5 (+11.5) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -18.7 (-24.7) | 152.3 (+11.7) | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -19.6 (-25.6) | 151.1 (+12.9) | 90% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PFW 87 – 81 IUIN |
| Feb 15, 2026 | PFW 83 – 78 IUIN |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PFW 91 – 80 IUIN |
| Dec 12, 2024 | PFW 78 – 76 IUIN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | PFW 92 – 65 IUIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 2-18 |
| Home | 11-5 | 4-10 |
| Away | 10-8 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.3 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 81.2 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#128) | -17.8 (#361) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#150) | -3.20 (#357) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#148) | -4.04 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#190) | 0.354 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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