Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | MICH +145 PUR -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +24 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -5.9 (+29.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (-10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -3.1 (+27.1) | 144.8 (-4.8) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -4.2 (+28.2) | 149.5 (-9.5) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -3.5 (+27.5) | 151.6 (-11.6) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -3.2 (+27.2) | 148.7 (-8.7) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | PUR 80 – 72 MICH |
| Feb 17, 2026 | MICH 91 – 80 PUR |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MICH 86 – 68 PUR |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MICH 75 – 73 PUR |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PUR 91 – 64 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-5 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#40) | 19.6 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#62) | 3.46 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#59) | 4.45 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#48) | 0.631 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 50.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 41.1% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 59.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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