Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | MICH +120 PUR -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +18 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -2.0 (+20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -1.1 (+19.1) | 145.2 (+8.8) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -2.6 (+20.6) | 143.7 (+10.3) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -2.2 (+20.2) | 143.9 (+10.1) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -1.7 (+19.7) | 145.8 (+8.2) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | PUR 80 – 72 MICH |
| Feb 17, 2026 | MICH 91 – 80 PUR |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MICH 75 – 73 PUR |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PUR 91 – 64 MICH |
| Feb 25, 2024 | PUR 84 – 76 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 15.8 (#27) | 17.8 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#22) | 2.86 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.54 (#20) | 3.68 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#20) | 0.624 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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