Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | MICH -245 PUR +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +8 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | MICH -7.5 (-15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -6.2 (-14.2) | 147.6 (+4.4) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -4.8 (-12.8) | 146.3 (+5.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -6.0 (-14.0) | 148.8 (+3.2) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -5.9 (-13.9) | 146.7 (+5.3) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | MICH 91 – 80 PUR |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MICH 86 – 68 PUR |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MICH 75 – 73 PUR |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PUR 91 – 64 MICH |
| Feb 25, 2024 | PUR 84 – 76 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 30-9 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 11-0 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 12-2 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.3 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 29.2 (#1) | 21.8 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.17 (#2) | 3.38 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.64 (#2) | 4.35 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.682 (#1) | 0.616 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 2.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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