Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | PUR +124 MICH -148 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +11 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | MICH -5.2 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -1.6 (-9.4) | 151.6 (+19.4) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -0.5 (-10.5) | 152.9 (+18.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -2.4 (-8.6) | 151.3 (+19.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -1.5 (-9.5) | 152.4 (+18.6) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | PUR 80 – 72 MICH |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MICH 86 – 68 PUR |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MICH 75 – 73 PUR |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PUR 91 – 64 MICH |
| Feb 25, 2024 | PUR 84 – 76 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-9 | 37-3 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 19-1 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 8-3 | 11-0 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 12-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 87.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 22.3 (#9) | 30.5 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.91 (#10) | 5.02 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.96 (#9) | 6.65 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.649 (#7) | 0.688 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 51.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 41.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 2.13 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 58.9% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 43.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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