Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | MICH -150 PUR +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +2 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -2.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -2.8 (-0.8) | 149.6 (-1.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -1.9 (+0.1) | 148.2 (-0.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -3.0 (-1.0) | 147.8 (+0.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -2.9 (-0.9) | 150.5 (-2.5) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | PUR 80 – 72 MICH |
| Feb 17, 2026 | MICH 91 – 80 PUR |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MICH 86 – 68 PUR |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PUR 91 – 64 MICH |
| Feb 25, 2024 | PUR 84 – 76 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 18.1 (#16) | 19.1 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#16) | 3.44 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.17 (#11) | 4.38 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.647 (#9) | 0.661 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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