Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | MICH +650 PUR -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +8 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -14.4 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -12.9 (+4.9) | 153.3 (+6.7) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -12.7 (+4.7) | 152.6 (+7.4) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -13.8 (+5.8) | 154.0 (+6.0) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -12.5 (+4.5) | 154.8 (+5.2) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | PUR 80 – 72 MICH |
| Feb 17, 2026 | MICH 91 – 80 PUR |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MICH 86 – 68 PUR |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MICH 75 – 73 PUR |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PUR 91 – 64 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 34-5 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 17-3 |
| Home | 5-10 | 16-0 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 11-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L9 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#110) | 22.3 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#150) | 3.69 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#125) | 4.44 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#155) | 0.687 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 40.6% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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