Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | EVAN +190 INST -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +3 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -3.3 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (+25.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -3.8 (+0.8) | 133.3 (+23.7) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -2.9 (-0.1) | 133.8 (+23.2) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -2.5 (-0.5) | 133.8 (+23.2) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -1.9 (-1.1) | 134.2 (+22.8) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | INST 84 – 63 EVAN |
| Jan 10, 2026 | EVAN 72 – 69 INST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 74 INST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | INST 66 – 62 EVAN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | INST 85 – 67 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-24 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 4-14 |
| Home | 4-9 | 8-6 |
| Away | 2-11 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L8 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.8 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#310) | -2.3 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#301) | -1.08 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#284) | -1.19 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#299) | 0.447 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 28.3 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 5.6 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 16.5% | 17.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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