Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | SF -3500 PEPP +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +44 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | SF -20.3 (+23.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -17.0 (+27.0) | 145.6 (+20.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -14.5 (+29.5) | 146.6 (+19.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -16.2 (+27.8) | 145.3 (+20.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -17.4 (+26.6) | 145.1 (+20.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | SF 80 – 60 PEPP |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SF 80 – 63 PEPP |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SF 92 – 68 PEPP |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SF 80 – 74 PEPP |
| Feb 12, 2023 | SF 88 – 80 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 1-15 |
| Home | 14-4 | 7-9 |
| Away | 7-2 | 0-13 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 77.8 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#46) | -7.0 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#47) | -1.36 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#28) | -1.56 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#44) | 0.428 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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