Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | SF -450 PEPP +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +8 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | SF -8.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (+10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -7.1 (+0.9) | 161.4 (+6.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -9.7 (-1.7) | 160.9 (+7.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -7.0 (+1.0) | 159.4 (+8.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -7.2 (+0.8) | 159.9 (+8.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | SF 80 – 60 PEPP |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SF 80 – 63 PEPP |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SF 92 – 68 PEPP |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SF 80 – 74 PEPP |
| Feb 11, 2022 | SF 105 – 61 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 2-14 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#106) | -0.7 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#125) | -0.68 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#117) | -0.47 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#176) | 0.478 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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