Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | PEPP +333 SF -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +6 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -8.9 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -8.8 (+2.8) | 145.6 (+8.4) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -8.9 (+2.9) | 142.1 (+11.9) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -8.0 (+2.0) | 143.9 (+10.1) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -8.8 (+2.8) | 145.3 (+8.7) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | SF 80 – 60 PEPP |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SF 80 – 63 PEPP |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SF 92 – 68 PEPP |
| Feb 12, 2023 | SF 88 – 80 PEPP |
| Feb 11, 2022 | SF 105 – 61 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 11-5 |
| Home | 9-8 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#232) | 8.6 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#281) | 1.31 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#262) | 1.67 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#296) | 0.549 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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