Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | SF -1400 PEPP +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +24 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | SF -15.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -14.3 (+9.7) | 146.4 (+13.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -13.6 (+10.4) | 144.6 (+15.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -13.4 (+10.6) | 146.4 (+13.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -13.5 (+10.5) | 147.3 (+12.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | SF 80 – 60 PEPP |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SF 80 – 63 PEPP |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SF 80 – 74 PEPP |
| Feb 12, 2023 | SF 88 – 80 PEPP |
| Feb 11, 2022 | SF 105 – 61 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-8 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#64) | -3.2 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#70) | -0.81 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#73) | -0.76 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#90) | 0.462 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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