Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | PEPP +240 SF -290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +17 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -4.1 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -4.9 (-12.1) | 146.8 (-3.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -3.7 (-13.3) | 145.3 (-2.3) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -4.5 (-12.5) | 145.7 (-2.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -4.0 (-13.0) | 147.3 (-4.3) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | SF 80 – 60 PEPP |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SF 92 – 68 PEPP |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SF 80 – 74 PEPP |
| Feb 12, 2023 | SF 88 – 80 PEPP |
| Feb 11, 2022 | SF 105 – 61 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-22 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-9 | 17-2 |
| Away | 2-11 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#171) | 7.0 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#249) | 1.54 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#234) | 1.88 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#239) | 0.564 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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