Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -150 ARST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +2 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -3.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -2.6 (-0.6) | 136.3 (+19.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -2.4 (-0.4) | 135.8 (+20.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -2.3 (-0.3) | 136.0 (+20.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -2.5 (-0.5) | 136.6 (+19.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | TROY 99 – 74 ARST |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ARST 86 – 74 TROY |
| Mar 10, 2025 | TROY 94 – 81 ARST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | TROY 71 – 70 ARST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ARST 84 – 78 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 8-7 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#171) | -0.7 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#121) | 0.70 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#116) | 0.92 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#137) | 0.528 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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