Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -270 TROY +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +1 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -6.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -4.6 (-5.6) | 139.9 (+1.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -5.8 (-6.8) | 139.4 (+1.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -5.5 (-6.5) | 140.8 (+0.2) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -5.2 (-6.2) | 139.7 (+1.3) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | TROY 99 – 74 ARST |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ARST 86 – 74 TROY |
| Mar 10, 2025 | TROY 94 – 81 ARST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ARST 84 – 78 TROY |
| Feb 23, 2024 | ARST 79 – 71 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#85) | 3.9 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#88) | 0.35 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#84) | 0.64 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#49) | 0.536 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 39.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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