Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -170 ARST +142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +25 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -5.0 (+20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -4.6 (+20.4) | 159.6 (+13.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -4.1 (+20.9) | 159.2 (+13.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -5.3 (+19.7) | 159.0 (+14.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -5.3 (+19.7) | 159.0 (+14.0) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | ARST 86 – 74 TROY |
| Mar 10, 2025 | TROY 94 – 81 ARST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | TROY 71 – 70 ARST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ARST 84 – 78 TROY |
| Feb 23, 2024 | ARST 79 – 71 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-7 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 78.0 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#130) | 1.0 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#91) | 0.99 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#119) | 1.21 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#50) | 0.593 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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