Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | TROY +125 ARST -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +13 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -2.7 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (+35.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -1.7 (+14.7) | 138.1 (+36.9) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -1.5 (+14.5) | 140.5 (+34.5) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -2.2 (+15.2) | 139.3 (+35.7) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -2.1 (+15.1) | 139.8 (+35.2) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | TROY 99 – 74 ARST |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ARST 86 – 74 TROY |
| Feb 16, 2025 | TROY 71 – 70 ARST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ARST 84 – 78 TROY |
| Feb 23, 2024 | ARST 79 – 71 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 9-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#108) | 6.3 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#132) | 0.83 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#123) | 1.18 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#99) | 0.565 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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